Gaussian Moving Average Afl

Dies ist eine Zusammenstellung von langfristigen Prognosen auf der Grundlage quantitativer Daten aus verschiedenen Sektoren. Langfristig bedeutet 20 Jahre oder mehr. Diverse bedeutet Prognosen in einem breiten Spektrum von Aktivitäten wie Transport, Bildung, Lebensmittel, Schutz, Unterhaltung, Technologie, etc. Sie können helfen, wachsen die Sammlung. Bitte überprüfen Sie unsere Liste der gewünschten Indikatoren und übermitteln Sie Vorschläge für extrapolationskk. org. We039re auch sammeln und crossposting alle Versuche, die Zukunft auf Tumblr und Pinterest extrapolieren. Sie können uns auf Twitter auch folgen. Diese Sammlung von Daten umfasst die folgenden Indikatoren, Daten und Quellen: GLOBAL Eigentum gegenüber dem Zugang (Millionen), 2009-2019, McKinsey gesamten Medienverbrauch CAGR, 2010-2015, Zenith insgesamt Medienverbrauch minday, 20102015-2018, Zenith total Internet Konsum, 20152018, Zenith mobile Internet Konsum Minday, 2016, Zenith alle anderen (neben mobilen Internet) Medien Konsum ändern, 2016, Zenith Desktop-Internet-Konsum Minday, 201020142016, Zenith traditionellen Kino Konsum ändern, 2016, Zenith traditionellen Outdoor-Konsum ändern, 2016 , Zenith traditionellen Fernsehen Konsum Minday, der Konsum, ändern, 201520162018, Zenith traditionellen Radio-Konsum ändern, 2016, Zenith Traditionelle Zeitungen Konsum, Veränderung, 2016, Zenith traditionelle Zeitschriften Konsum ändern 2016, Zenith Konsum, Milliarden, 2020, Aktivieren Sie digitale Video Streaming-Konsumenten ebooks digitale Musik Streaming digitale Zeitungen esports digitale Zeitschriften VEREINIGTE STAATEN PER ADULT alle digitalen Medien Zeitplan, 2012-2018, eMarketer alle mobilen (nonvoice) Medienzeitplan, 2012-2018, eMarketer mobilen Zeitplan, 2012-2018, eMarketer mobile soziale Netzwerke Zeit, 2012-2018, eMarketer bewegliches videotimeday, 2012-2018, eMarketer bewegliches anderes Mittel timeday, 2012-2018, eMarketer alle desklap-top Mittelzeitschema, 2012-2018, eMarketer desklap-top video timeday, 2012-2018, eMarketer desklap - Top Social Media Timeday, 2012-2018, eMarketer Deskript-Top-Radio-Zeitplan, 2012-2018, eMarketer Desklap-top andere Medien Zeitplan, 2012-2018, eMarketer andere angeschlossene Geräte Zeit, 2012-2018, eMarketer nicht-digitalen TV Zeitplan, EMarketer nicht-digitaler Zeitschriften-Zeitplan, 2012-2018, eMarketer nicht-digitaler Zeitschriften-Zeitplan, 2012-2018, eMarketer nicht-digitaler Zeitschriften-Zeitplan, 2012-2018, EMarketer alle digitalen und nicht-digitalen Medien insgesamt timeday, 2012-2018, eMarketer VEREINIGTE STAATEN, TOTAL AMONG ALLE BENUTZER Spiel Stunden Tag und CAGR, 20152020, Aktivieren Sie Messaging-Stunden-Tag und CAGR, 20152020, Aktivieren Sie Social Media Stunden Tag und CAGR, 20152020, Audio-Tag aktivieren Und CAGR, 20152020, Aktivieren Sie Video-Stunden-Tag und CAGR, 20152020, Aktivieren Sie das Abonnement-Video von UNITED STATES auf Abruf, Abonnenten nach Anzahl von Diensten, 2016-2020, Aktivieren Sie Musikeinnahmen nach Verkaufstyp und CAGR, 2006-2016, Anzeigen gegen bezahlte Abonnements, 2013-2020, Aktivieren Sie intelligente Lautsprecher Haushalt Penetration, Millionen, 2015-2020, Aktivieren Sie aggregierte Medienausgaben CAGR, 2016-2020, aktivieren Internet-Werbung Internet-Zugang Out-of-Home-Werbung Videospiele Musik TV-Werbung Business - To-Business Buch Publishing Radio Kino tv amp Video-Magazin Publishing Zeitung Publishing Internet Nutzer der Bevölkerung, 2000-2014, ITU Breitband-Abonnements, 2000-2015, ITU Wired-Line vs drahtlose Benutzer, 2000-2014, aktivieren Zusätzlich zu diesen Daten Sets, Ive auch festgestellt, ein großer Satz von VR Prognosen von Jesse Schell. Allgemeiner Medienkonsum McKinsey veröffentlicht einen jährlichen globalen Medienausgabenbericht, in dem die letzten fünf Jahre historischer Daten und Prognosetrends für die nächsten fünf Jahre untersucht werden. Der jüngste Bericht enthält die folgenden Eigentums-vs Access-Diagramm: Hinweis: Ownership besteht aus Heimvideo physischen Vertrieb, physische aufgezeichneten Musik-Vertrieb und digitale Musik-Downloads. Der Zugang besteht aus OTT-Digitalvideo, aufgezeichneten Musikdigitalabonnements und aufgezeichneten Musik-unterstützten digitalen Streams. Zitieren: McKinsey amp Company, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Ältere McKinsey Berichte sind verfügbar, die einige ältere, historische Datenpunkte bieten. Beispielsweise enthält der Ausblick 2014-2018 einige historische Daten, die bis 2013 zurückgehen. Zenith (Teil von Publicis Media) ist ein Markierungsberatungsunternehmen. Die jährliche globale Umfrage (zwei Jahre in Folge), Media Consumption Forecasts, schätzt die jüngsten, aktuellen und kurzfristigen Medienverbrauchsmuster. Der aktuelle Bericht prognostiziert allgemeine Medienverbrauch Trends zwei Jahre bis 2018. Der Bericht schätzt Zeit verbrachte Zeitung lesen Zeitungen und Zeitschriften, Fernsehen, Radio hören, besuchen das Kino, mit dem Internet, und die Anzeige Außenwerbung, während aus dem Haus . 71 Länder sind abgedeckt, und regionale Schätzungen sind verfügbar (obwohl die frei verfügbaren Auszüge unten global sind). Gesamtverbrauch der Medien 2010-2015: 7,9 (getrieben durch den Internet-Konsum), durchschnittlich 1,5 pro Jahr 2010: 403 minday 2015: 435 minday 2016: 1,4 2017: 1,2 2018: 448 minday, 110 minday 2018: 31 weltweiter Medienverbrauch Mobiler Internetverbrauch 2016: 27,7, 86 minday für 71 des Internetverbrauchs Gesamtverbrauch der Medien 2016: 1,4 Alle anderen Medienkonsum (außer mobilem Internet) 2016: -3,4 Desktop-Internetverbrauch 2010: 36 minday 2014: 52 minday Traditioneller Kinoverbrauch 2016: -0,5 Traditioneller Außenverbrauch 2016: -0,8 Traditioneller Fernsehkonsum sinkt, aber immer noch das beliebteste Medium 2015: 177 minday, 41 Medienverbrauch 2016: -1,5 2018: 38 von Medienverbrauch Traditioneller Funkverbrauch 2016: -2,4 Traditioneller Zeitungsverbrauch 2016: -5,6 Traditioneller Zeitschriftenverbrauch 2016: -6,7 Anmerkung: Die traditionellen Medienzahlen beziehen sich nur auf die Zeit, die diese Medien in ihren traditionellen Formen mit gedruckten Publikationen und Rundfunksendern und Radio verbrauchen Stationen. Ein Großteil der Zeit, die die Verbraucher für das Internet ausgeben, widmet sich dem Konsum von Inhalten, die von traditionellen Verlagen und Sendern produziert wurden. Src: Zenith. Juni 2016. Medienverbrauchsprognosen. Via: Kontakt: Jonathan Barnard, Leiter der Prognose, jbarnard1publicisgroupe. net Tim Collison, Direktor für globale Kommunikation, tcollisopublicisgroupe. net eMarketer veröffentlicht kurzfristige Prognosen des allgemeinen Medienverbrauchs länger als Zenith. Die jüngsten Prognosen bis 2018 zeigen ähnliche Tendenzen, obwohl die gesamten Zeitaufwand Schätzungen ganz anders sind. Während mobile Geräte ermöglichen Menschen zu konsumieren Medieninhalte überall zu jeder Zeit, die Zahlen deuten darauf hin, dass ein Sättigungspunkt nahe ist und dass erhöhte Zeit mit einem Medium verbracht wird dazu neigen, auf Kosten der Zeit mit einem anderen verbracht, wie in einem neuen eMarketer Bericht, US-Zeit mit Medien: eMarketers Updated Schätzungen für Frühjahr 2016. Technologie-Stratege Michael Wolf von Activate, vor kurzem präsentiert eine Reihe von Medien Prognosen bei WSJDLive, The Wall Street Jounrals globalen Tech-Konferenz. Hier sind Auszüge: PwC produziert eine jährliche 5-Jahres-Ausblick für die Unterhaltungs-und Medienindustrie, die Prognosen der Konsumausgaben und Werbeeinnahmen enthält. Hier sind Prognosen für die US-Aggregate Medienausgaben für 2016-2020: Zitieren: PwC. Juni 2016. PwC Global Media und Entertainment Ausblick: 2016-2020. PwCs Chris Lederer, Partner, PwC8217s Strategyamp, Entertainment amp Medienpraxis, gab folgende Verallgemeinerungen und Beispiele aus dem letzten Bericht: Auf dem höchsten Niveau zeigt unser jährlicher Global Entertainment und Media Outlook eine ausgereifte Medienbranche mit verlangsamten Wachstumsperspektiven. Die Länder mit großen Populationen unter 35 sind schnellere Landwirte als Länder mit größerer Bevölkerungszahl, so Lederer. Im Einzelnen zeigte die PwC-Analyse, dass die EampM-Ausgaben in den zehn jüngsten Märkten im Durchschnitt dreimal so schnell wachsen wie in den zehn ältesten Märkten. 2016 ist das Jahr, in dem weltweite Internetwerbeumsätze die TV-Werbung übertreffen werden. ITU veröffentlicht jährlich eine Schätzung des Prozentsatzes der Internetnutzer in jedem Land. Vereinigte Staaten, 2000-2014 ITU Daten sind hier: Src: ITU. 2016. Wichtige IKT-Indikatoren für Industrie - und Entwicklungsländer und die Welt (Summen und Penetrationsraten). XLS-ICT-Statistiken Wired-Line Vs. Drahtlose Benutzer Game Designer Jesse Schell hat einen großen Satz von 40 (meist) falsifizierbaren Vorhersagen für VR, mit Blick bis zu 2025 gemacht. Diese Sammlung von Daten enthält die folgenden Indikatoren, Daten und Quellen: Arbeitslosenquote, 2010-2060, OECD (Nach Anzahl und Prozentsatz), 20142024, BLS-Berufe mit dem größten Arbeitsplatzabbau (nach Anzahl und Prozent), 20142024, BLS Zusätzlich zu diesen Datensätzen, Ive Ein paar Arbeitsplätze Projektionen von futuristischen Thomas Frey, und eine Studie schätzen die Auswirkungen der zukünftigen Technologie auf Arbeitsplätze in den nächsten paar Jahrzehnten. Angeführt: OECD. Mai 2014. OECD Langzeit-Baseline-Daten unter NAIRU Arbeitslosenquote mit nicht beschleunigender Inflationsrate, 2010-2060 Src: OECD. Mai 2014. Wirtschaftsausblick Nr. 95: Langfristige Baseline-Projektionen Variabel: NAIRU-Arbeitslosenquote mit nicht beschleunigender Inflationsrate Land: USA White Collar Beschäftigungswachstum Beschäftigung in den USA in Prozent der gesamten US-Belegschaft: AFL-CIO. 8220Current Statistics on White Collar Mitarbeiter. Am schnellsten wachsende und rückläufige Berufe Tabelle 1.4 Berufe mit dem größten Beschäftigungswachstum (Rohzahlen), 2014 und projizierten 2024 (Zahlen in Tausend) Src: Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2016. Tabelle 1.4 Berufe mit dem meisten Beschäftigungswachstum, 2014 und projizierten 2024 (Zahlen in Tausend). Beschäftigungsprognosen. Tabelle 1.4 Berufe mit dem meisten Beschäftigungswachstum (prozentualer Anstieg), 2014 und projizierten 2024 (Zahlen in Tausend) Src: Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2016. Tabelle 1.4 Berufe mit dem meisten Beschäftigungswachstum, 2014 und projizierten 2024 (Zahlen in Tausend). Beschäftigungsprognosen. Tabelle 1.6 Berufe mit den größten Arbeitsplatzabschlägen (Rohzahlen), 2014 und projizierten 2024 (Zahlen in Tausend) Tabelle 1.5 Am schnellsten sinkende Beschäftigungen, 2014 und projizierte 2024 (Zahlen in Tausend) Abstract: Wir untersuchen, wie empfindliche Arbeitsplätze für die Computerisierung sind. Um dies zu beurteilen, beginnen wir mit der Implementierung einer neuartigen Methodik, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit der Computerisierung für 702 detaillierte Berufe unter Verwendung eines Gaußschen Prozessklassifizierers abzuschätzen. Basierend auf diesen Schätzungen untersuchen wir die erwarteten Auswirkungen der künftigen Informatisierung auf die Ergebnisse des US-Arbeitsmarktes mit dem primären Ziel, die Anzahl der Arbeitsplätze zu analysieren und das Verhältnis zwischen einer Beschäftigungswahrscheinlichkeit für Computerisierung, Löhnen und Bildungsergebnissen. Nach unseren Schätzungen sind etwa 47 Prozent der gesamten US-Beschäftigung gefährdet. Wir zeigen weiterhin, dass Löhne und Bildungsgrad eine starke negative Beziehung zu einer Beschäftigungswahrscheinlichkeit der Computerisierung aufweisen. Internet-Nutzer der Bevölkerung, 2000-2014, ITU Breitband-Abonnements, 2000-2015, ITU Wired-Line vs Wireless Benutzer, 2000-2014, Aktivieren Zusätzlich zu diesen Datensätzen, Ive auch festgestellt, eine große Reihe von VR Prognosen von Jesse Schell . Allgemeiner Medienkonsum McKinsey veröffentlicht einen jährlichen globalen Medienausgabenbericht, in dem die letzten fünf Jahre historischer Daten und Prognosetrends für die nächsten fünf Jahre untersucht werden. Der jüngste Bericht enthält die folgenden Eigentums-vs Access-Diagramm: Hinweis: Ownership besteht aus Heimvideo physischen Vertrieb, physische aufgezeichneten Musik-Vertrieb und digitale Musik-Downloads. Der Zugang besteht aus OTT-Digitalvideo, aufgezeichneten Musikdigitalabonnements und aufgezeichneten Musik-unterstützten digitalen Streams. McKinseyampUnternehmen. Juli 2016. McKinsey amp Company, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Ältere McKinsey Berichte sind verfügbar, die einige ältere, historische Datenpunkte bieten. Beispielsweise enthält der Ausblick 2014-2018 einige historische Daten, die bis 2013 zurückgehen. Zenith (Teil von Publicis Media) ist ein Markierungsberatungsunternehmen. Die jährliche globale Umfrage (zwei Jahre in Folge), Media Consumption Forecasts, schätzt die jüngsten, aktuellen und kurzfristigen Medienverbrauchsmuster. Der aktuelle Bericht prognostiziert allgemeine Medienverbrauch Trends zwei Jahre bis 2018. Der Bericht schätzt Zeit verbrachte Zeitung lesen Zeitungen und Zeitschriften, Fernsehen, Radio hören, besuchen das Kino, mit dem Internet, und die Anzeige Außenwerbung, während aus dem Haus . 71 Länder sind abgedeckt, und regionale Schätzungen sind verfügbar (obwohl die frei verfügbaren Auszüge unten global sind). Gesamtverbrauch der Medien 2010-2015: 7,9 (getrieben durch den Internet-Konsum), Durchschnitt 1,5 pro Jahr 2010: 403 minday 2015: 435 minday 2018: 448 minday, 0,4 (mobile Konsumstufen aus) Gesamtverbrauch im Internet 2015: 110 minday 2018: 31 global Medienverbrauch Mobiler Internetverbrauch 2016: 27,7, 86 minday für 71 des Internetverbrauchs Gesamtverbrauch der Medien Alle anderen Medienverbrauch (neben mobilem Internet) Desktop-Internetverbrauch Traditioneller Kinoverbrauch Traditioneller Außenverbrauch Der traditionelle Fernsehkonsum sinkt, ist aber immer noch das bekannteste Medium 2015: 177 minday, 41 Medienverbrauch 2018: 38 Medienverbrauch Traditioneller Radioverbrauch Traditioneller Zeitungsverbrauch Traditioneller Zeitschriftenverbrauch Hinweis: Die traditionellen Medienzahlen beziehen sich nur auf die Zeit, die diese Medien in ihren traditionellen Formen mit gedruckten Publikationen und Rundfunksendern verbrauchen Radio Stationen. Ein Großteil der Zeit, die die Verbraucher für das Internet ausgeben, widmet sich dem Konsum von Inhalten, die von traditionellen Verlagen und Sendern produziert wurden. Zenit. Juni 2016. Jonathan Barnard, Leiter der Prognose, jbarnard1publicisgroupe. net Tim Collison, Global Communications Director, tcollisopublicisgroupe. net eMarketer veröffentlichte kurzfristige Prognosen der allgemeinen Medienverbrauch länger als Zenith. Die jüngsten Prognosen bis 2018 zeigen ähnliche Tendenzen, obwohl die gesamten Zeitaufwand Schätzungen ganz anders sind. Während mobile Geräte ermöglichen Menschen zu konsumieren Medieninhalte überall zu jeder Zeit, die Zahlen deuten darauf hin, dass ein Sättigungspunkt nahe ist und dass erhöhte Zeit mit einem Medium verbracht wird dazu neigen, auf Kosten der Zeit mit einem anderen verbracht, wie in einem neuen eMarketer Bericht, US Zeitaufwand für Medien: eMarketers aktualisiert Schätzungen für Frühjahr 2016. eMarketer. Juni 2016. Technologie-Stratege Michael Wolf von Activate, vor kurzem präsentiert eine Reihe von Medien Prognosen bei WSJDLive, The Wall Street Jounrals globale Tech-Konferenz. Hier sind Auszüge: Aktivieren. Oktober 2016. PwC produziert eine jährliche 5-Jahres-Ausblick für die Unterhaltungs-und Medienindustrie, die Prognosen der Konsumausgaben und Werbeeinnahmen enthält. Hier sind Prognosen für US aggregierte Medienausgaben für 2016-2020: PRNewswire. Juni 2016. PwC Global Media und Entertainment Ausblick: 2016-2020. PwCs Chris Lederer, Partner, PwCs Strategyamp, Unterhaltungspraxis Medienpraxis, gaben folgende Verallgemeinerungen und Beispiele aus dem aktuellen Bericht: Auf der höchsten Ebene zeigt unser jährlicher Global Entertainment and Media Outlook eine reife Medienbranche mit verlangsamten Wachstumsperspektiven. Die Länder mit großen Populationen unter 35 sind schnellere Landwirte als Länder mit größerer Bevölkerungszahl, betont Lederer. Im Einzelnen zeigte die PwC-Analyse, dass die EampM-Ausgaben in den zehn jüngsten Märkten im Durchschnitt dreimal so schnell wachsen wie in den zehn ältesten Märkten. 2016 ist das Jahr, in dem globale Internet-Werbung Einnahmen TV-Werbung übertreffen wird Damian Radcliffe. August 2016. Das Mediengespräch. Die ITU veröffentlicht eine jährliche Schätzung des Prozentsatzes der Internetnutzer in jedem Land. Vereinigte Staaten, 2000-2014 Diese Datenerhebung umfasst die folgenden Indikatoren, Daten und Quellen: Gewaltverbrechen Kriminalitätsraten, 1994-2015, US Dept. of Justice Weißkriminalität Strafverfolgung, 1995-2015, TRAC Hinrichtungen, 1976-2016 amp 1608 -2002, Todesstrafe-Info-Center Erwachsenen Korrekturbevölkerung, 2014-1980, DoJ Inkarnationsrate, 1925-2014, DoJ und Sourcebook von Strafjustizstatistiken und Bundes-Confinement und Gemeinschaftseinrichtungen, 1979-2005 (quinquennial), DoJ Crime in den Vereinigten Staaten nach Volumen und Satz pro 100.000 Einwohner, 19942015 Anmerkung: Zu den gewalttätigen Verbrechen gehören die Delikte von Mord, Vergewaltigung (Legacy Definition), Raub und verschärfter Angriff. Hinweis: Die Immobilienkriminalität umfasst die Verstöße gegen Einbruch, Diebstahl und Diebstahl von Kraftfahrzeugen. Src für 1996-2015: U. S. Justizministerium. Zugänglich am 24. Oktober 2016. Verbrechen in den Vereinigten Staaten 2015. Tabelle 1: Verbrechen in den Vereinigten Staaten. Src für 1994, 1995: US-Justizministerium. Zugreifen auf den 24. Oktober 2016. Verbrechen in den Vereinigten Staaten 1995. Abschnitt II: Verbrechen Index Straftaten berichtet PDF White Collar Verbrechen Für jede 100.000 Menschen in den Vereinigten Staaten gibt es 5.317 Verhaftungen, die in direktem Zusammenhang mit Weißkragen Verbrechen sind. Im August 2014 wurde berichtet, dass es 512 insgesamt weißen Staatsanwaltschaften, die in den Vereinigten Staaten aufgetreten sind. Auf einem Jahr-zu-Jahres-Vergleich mit August 2013 sind die 512 Vorfälle 6,2 niedriger. Es wird geschätzt, dass 1 von 4 Haushalten irgendwann zum Opfer eines weißen Verbrechens werden wird. Mehr als 88 von Verbrechenvorfällen werden nie den Strafverfolgungsbehörden gemeldet, obwohl etwa die Hälfte aller Vorfälle an jemanden gemeldet werden, wie zum Beispiel ein Vorgesetzter. White Collar Verbrechen hat sich weg von stehlen Geld von Unternehmen zu stehlen Geld von Menschen. Die am häufigsten zitierte Anklage, die einen Verfolgungsversuch führt, ist ein verschärfter Identitätsdiebstahl. Diese Gebühr beläuft sich auf 18,6 der gesamten Gebühren, die im letzten Monat eingereicht wurden. Mail Betrug oder Verschwörung Gebühren zu begehen Straftaten, die das Land zu betrügen sind auch beliebte Gebühren, die eingereicht werden. Insgesamt sind jedoch Betrugsdelikte und Betrugsdelikte immer noch die populärsten Verbrechen, die untersucht werden. Weißkragen-Verbrechen-Verfolgung, 1995-2015 Src: TRAC Reports. Juli 2015. Federal White Collar Verbrechen Strafverfolgung bei 20-Jahres-Low. Transaktionsaufzeichnungen Access Clearinghouse. Syracuse Universität. Das Todesstrafe-Informationszentrum (DPIC) verfolgt und aggregiert historische Daten über die Todesstrafe in den Vereinigten Staaten. DPICs moderner Datensatz geht zurück auf 1976 DPIC sammelte auch Daten zur Datenerfassung, die auf 1608 in ihrer Espy-Datei zurückgeht, basierend auf Forschungsarbeiten von M. Watt Espy und John Ortiz Smykla. Die Espy-Daten stehen in verschiedenen Formaten auf der DPIC-Website zur Verfügung, aber Time hat eine interaktive Info-Grafik veröffentlicht, die die Gesamtzahl der Ausführungen pro Jahr anzeigt und die Daten von Espy mit den modernen Daten der DPIC integriert. ZU TUN: AUSSCHLIESSEN VON JÄHRLICHEN TALTEN VON AUSFÜHRUNGEN VON ESPY DATEN DATEI. Das Bureau of Justice Statistics gibt Daten über die amerikanische Korrekturbevölkerung zurück, die mindestens 1980 zurückgeht. Src: Bureau of Justice Statistics. Zugänglich am 3. November 2016. Key-Statistik: Total Korrekturbevölkerung. Geschätzte Zahl der Personen, die von US-amerikanischen Erwachsenen-Korrektur-Systemen überwacht werden, nach Korrekturstatus, 1980-2014. XLS US-Justizministerium. Eine Zusammenstellung der historischen Inkarnationsrate, 1925-2014, wird veröffentlicht ein WikiCommons, zitiert Daten aus dem Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics. Src: Smallman12q. Januar 2010. Zugriff auf den 3. November 2016. (Nachfolgend von anderen Benutzern aktualisiert) File: U. S. Haftungsbeschränkungen 1925 onwards. png Wikimedia Commons. Zitieren: US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics. Und Universität von Albany. Quelle der Kriminaljustizstatistik (2003). Tabelle 6.28, S.500. Staatliche und föderale Einrichtungen (Entbindungseinrichtungen und Gemeinschaftseinrichtungen) Die Volkszählung und die föderalen Erwachsenen-Korrektur-Einrichtungen werden seit 1974 alle fünf bis sieben Jahre durchgeführt. Die Volkszählungsberichte enthalten eine Anzahl der in der Erhebung enthaltenen Einrichtungen. Unten sind Auszüge von 1979-2005. Haftanstalt und Gemeinschaftseinrichtungen 1979 8211 791 Staatseinschränkung 8211 568 1984 8211 903 Staatseinschränkung 8211 694 1990 8211 1.287 Staatseinschränkung 8211 957 1995 8211 1.500 Staatseinschränkung 8211 1.084 2000 8211 1.668 Staatseinschränkung 8211 1.023 2005 8211 1.821 (beinahe das gesamte Wachstum in privaten Einrichtungen) Hinweis: 2000 war das erste Jahr, das ausdrücklich private Einrichtungen genannt. Src: Büro für Justiz Statistik. 1979-2005. Volkszählung und bürokorrigierende Einrichtungen. Mehrere Berichte Datenerhebung: Volkszählung und staatlichen Erwachsenen-Korrektur-Einrichtungen. U. S. Justizministerium. Diese Sammlung von Daten umfasst die folgenden Indikatoren, Daten und Quellen: Pässe im Umlauf, 1989-2015, Dept. of State Pässe ausgestellt, 1974-2015, Dept. of State lizenzierte Fahrer, 1960-2014, Dept. of Transportation biometrische ID Verwendung Preise in Krankenhäusern, 2008-2012, Raymonde Charles et al. Abstimmung, 1978-2014 amp 1964-2014, Volkszählung Bureau Wähler Registrierung, 1966-2014 amp 1828-1956, Volkszählung Bureau amp Congressional Vierteljährliche Presse Menschen arbeiten in der Regierung, 2014 2024. BLS Bundesgesetze verabschiedeten, 1973-2015 amp 1947-2013, GovTrack amp Brookings Inst. (1989-2015) und Emissionsperiode (1974-2015) Hinweis: Ab 1996 werden für das Geschäftsjahr erhobene Pässe erstellt. Src: US-Außenministerium. Zugänglich am 17. Oktober 2016. Hinweis: Das Staatsministerium gibt seit 2007 ausschließlich biometrisch-elektronische Pässe aus. Heres eine Karte, die die State-by-State-Verteilung der Amerikaner mit aktiven Pässen, für das Jahr 2013 zeigt. Die Karte basiert auf den Angaben des State Department für die Anzahl der Pässe, die in den letzten 10 Jahren, geteilt durch die insgesamt US (Nach dem Census Bureau, abzüglich der 12 Millionen undokumentierten Einwohner und 13 Millionen Anwohner, die keine Pässe erhalten können). (In Millionen) 1960-2014 Die 2012 amerikanische nationale Wahl-Umfrage fragte Umfrageteilnehmer über, welche Art von von der Regierung ausgegebenen Foto Identifikation sie besaßen. Die Umfrage zeigt, dass 6,3 der Befragten nicht über eine gültige, staatlich ausgegebene Foto-ID. Dies sind die gesamten gewichteten Prozentsätze in den Antworten. Frage: Haben Sie eine nicht abgelaufene Driver8217s Lizenz Variablenname: dem3driver Hat: 83.9 Hat nicht: 15.4 Weiß nicht: 0 Zurückgewiesen: 0.6 Gesamtzahl der Antwortenden: 6.112 Frage: Hast du jetzt einen nicht abgelaufenen US-Pass? Haben Sie nicht eine Variable Name: dem3passport Hat: 40.8 Hat nicht: 58.4 Weiß nicht: 0.2 Abgelehnt: 0.6 Gesamtzahl der Befragten: 5.914 Frage: (Wenn keine gültige Führerschein oder Pass) Haben Sie ein anderes Formular nicht abgelaufen , Regierungsausgabe Foto-ID, wie eine staatlich ausgestellte ID oder militärische ID Variable Name: dem3govtid Hat: 5.9 Hat nicht: 6.3 Unanwendbar: 87.3 Weiß nicht: 0 Abgelehnt: 0.5 Gesamtzahl der Antwortenden: 5.914 Src: American National Election Studies . 28. Mai 2015. Benutzerhandbuch und Codebook für die ANES 2012 Zeitreihen-Studie. Universität Michigan und Universität von Stanford. Pp. 732-734. Weitere Quellenhinweise: Beschreibung: Einwohnerzahl3 Position: Vorwahlumfrage, Abschnitt-Nr. 62.7-12, 62.7-13 ANMERKUNG: ANES bestätigte per E-Mail, dass 2012 das erste Jahr war, in dem diese Daten erhoben wurden. Die gleichen Fragen werden in der Umfrage nach den Wahlen im Jahr 2016 gestellt, und die Ergebnisse werden am Ende des ersten Quartals 2017 veröffentlicht werden. Obwohl ANES bisher keine Daten über govt ausgestellte ID-Besitzquoten gesammelt hat, haben ein paar andere Umfragen Wurden vor kurzem im Rahmen der Wähler-ID-Anforderungen durchgeführt. Zum Beispiel: 2006 das Brennan Center (NYU School of Law) beauftragt eine Umfrage (von 987 Abstimmungsaltern Amerikaner) zu finden, dass 11 der Befragten nicht haben rechtzeitig Zugang zu staatlich ausgestellten Foto-ID. Src 2001 Die Carter-Ford-Kommission für Wahlreform fand heraus, dass 6-11 der stimmberechtigten Bürgerinnen und Staatsbürger keine staatliche Foto-ID hatten. Src Biometric Data Tracking Biometric Update ist ein Forschungs-und Nachrichtenquelle mit einer ziemlich breiten Palette von Nachrichtenartikeln. Forschungsunterlagen. weiße Papiere. Und Übersichten über aktuelle biometrische Identifikationstechnologien. Die Regierung Kauf von Artikeln von besonderem Interesse sein. Die Statistiken auf der Website vorgestellt sind weitgehend branchenorientiert. Suchbegriffe: biometrische Identifikation Adoptionsraten mobiler Führerschein (Iowa-Pilot im Jahr 2016) e-Führerscheine e-Pässe Grenzverwaltung nationale IDs White Paper: Rawlson ONeil King. Juni 2014. Nationales und Bürgerliches Weißbuch. Biometrics Research Group Gibt einen Überblick über die Format - und Use-Cases für ePassports, eIDs und die elektronische Abstimmungsregistrierung. Beschreibt kurz die Unzulänglichkeit der US-Sozialversicherungsnummer und die Fahrerlaubnis hinsichtlich ihrer Verwendung als Identifikation. Forschungsbericht: Smithers Pira. Juli 2016. Die Zukunft der persönlichen ID bis 2021. Kontakt: Stephen Hill Shillsmithers Josh Rabb jrabbsmithers Hinweis: Dieses Forschungsunternehmen konzentriert sich auf Verpackungs-, Papier - und Druckindustrie Lieferketten. Tische amp Figures: Trends in der persönlichen Identifizierung Die Entwicklung der ePassport-Markt Prognose für die Personalausweis durch Technologie 2016-2021 Einheit Prognose von (2016-2021): traditionelle MRP ePassports traditionellen nationalen ID eID Führerscheine traditionellen Visa eVisas Gesundheit Karten Wahlsysteme lebenswichtig Dokumente Die sich entwickelnde Landschaft der persönlichen Identifizierung 2016-2021 Ich habe nicht Kontakt mit dieser Firma zu fragen, über die gemeinsame Nutzung von Daten, aber wie bereits erwähnt, hat das Ministerium für die Ausstellung exklusiv biometrisch-elektronische Pässe seit 2007. Marktforschungs-Analysten bei Technavio haben vorhergesagt Dass der Biometriemarkt in Nordamerika kontinuierlich bei einem moderaten CAGR von mehr als 12 Jahren bis 2020 wachsen wird. Der Biometriemarkt in Nordamerika wird durch einen Anstieg der Investitionen und die frühzeitige Einführung biometrischer Technologien eine konstante Nachfrage aus dem staatlichen Sektor haben . Nach dieser Marktforschungsanalyse wird dieses Segment bis zum Jahr 2020 etwa 40 des gesamten Marktanteils ausmachen und den Markt während des gesamten Prognosezeitraums dominieren. Technavio8217s Analysten prognostizieren die globale Strafverfolgungs-Biometrie-Markt zu einem CAGR von 13,35 im Zeitraum 2014-2019 wachsen. Die Daten über die Nutzung biometrischer Informationen durch staatliche Stellen sind ziemlich schwer zu ermitteln. Neben den wenigen Berichten, die oben erwähnt wurden, habe ich einige Daten zu finden die Akzeptanz biometrischer Daten in US-Krankenhäusern. Nicht sicher, ob dies irgendwelche Auswirkungen auf die Akzeptanz in anderen Sektoren wie Regierung haben könnten. biometrische Geräte und deren zugehörige Software in Einrichtungen des Gesundheitswesens ermöglichen die automatische Authentifizierung von Patienten und Anbieter Identität für verschiedene Zwecke wie als sichere EHR-System Zugang und Patienten verification31. die häufigste Krankenhaus Einführung biometrischer Merkmale sind die Verwendung von Fingerabdruck und Iris scanning32, 33. die einzigartigen Authentifizierungsmethoden der Biometrie es schwierig machen, Mismatch und Identitäten fälschen, da keine zwei Iris oder Fingerabdrücke sind die gleich. Die Verwendung von Fingerabdruck-Scan-hatte eine durchschnittliche jährliche Annahme Anstieg von 1,23 pro Jahr ab 2008, was zu einer insgesamt 15,9 (n871) Annahme innerhalb aller Krankenhaus Befragten (n5467) im Jahr 2012 Iris-Scanning-Technologie hat eine durchschnittliche jährliche Akzeptanz der 0,02 aus dem gleichen Zeitrahmen und wird derzeit nur in 13 Krankenhäusern (0,02) im Jahr 2012 eingesetzt. Nur 2,49 (n136) Krankenhäuser im Jahr 2012 planen, die Fingerprint-Technologie in den folgenden Jahren zu erweitern oder anzunehmen, im Gegensatz zu nur 12 Krankenhäusern 0,22) für die Iris-Abtastung. Niedrige Adoption kann auf die Kosten bei der Umsetzung von Biometrie innerhalb bestehender EHR-Systeme und Workflows zurückzuführen sein. Beispiele für Unternehmen, die derzeit in den USA eingesetzt werden: Auszug: NECs NIST bewertete Gesichtsanpassungstechnologie wird verwendet, um das Bild, das während des normalen Inspektionsprozesses aufgenommen wurde, mit dem auf dem E-Pass des Reisenden gespeicherten Bild zu vergleichen. Die anfängliche Bereitstellung gilt für erstmalige Visa Waiver Program (VWP) Reisende und Rückkehr US-Bürger mit e-Passports. Unisys arbeitete zusammen mit NEC an der Entwicklung dieser entryexit Screening-Lösung, die CBP-Offiziere ein Live-Gesichtsbild zu erfassen. Das Gesichtsbild von elektronischen Pässen wird dann mit dem live erfassten Bild verglichen. Wenn die Bilder nicht übereinstimmen, können Reisende einer zusätzlichen Überprüfung durch CBP-Offiziere unterzogen werden. Voting Anmeldung und Preise Voting Preise in Congressional und Präsidentschaftswahlen: 1978-2014 Die Current Population Survey sammelt Daten über die Abstimmung und die Registrierung der Wähler im November von den geraden Jahren, und getan hat, so seit 1964 Es Informationen über Abstimmung und Registrierung von vielen liefert Merkmale wie Alter, Geschlecht, Rasse und Bildung. Da die Daten aus einer Umfrage stammen, unterliegen sie einem Stichprobenfehler. Die Wahlbeteiligung bei den Präsidentschaftswahlen: 1828 8211 2012 Jahr Die Wahlbeteiligung im Wahlalter Bevölkerung 1828 57,6 1832 55,4 1836 57,8 1840 80,2 1844 78,9 1848 72,7 1852 69,6 1856 78,9 1860 81,2 1864 73,8 1868 78,1 1872 71,3 1876 81,8 1880 79,4 1884 77,5 1888 79,3 1892 74,7 1896 1900 73,2 1904 79,3 65,2 1908 65,4 1912 58,8 1916 61,6 1920 49,2 1924 48,9 1928 56,9 1932 56,9 1936 61,0 1940 62,5 1944 55,9 1948 53,0 1952 63,3 1956 60,6 Anmerkung: Wahlalter Bevölkerung umfasst solche nicht förderfähig wie Verbrecher zu stimmen. Aus diesem Grund, V. A.P. Zahlen sind natürlich niedriger als wenn die Voting Eligible Population (V. E.P.) als Nenner verwendet wird. Anmerkung: Die Zahlen für 1960-2012 sind auch auf der Quellseite angegeben, die Daten von Gerhard Peters aus den Daten der Bundestagswahl zusammenfasst. Zitieren: Quellen: (1824-1956) 8211 Lyn Ragsdale, Vitalstatistiken über die Präsidentschaft (Washington, D. C. Congressional Quarterly Press, 1998), 132-38. Anzahl der Personen, die in Govt arbeiten 20142024 Src: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Zugänglich am 26. Oktober 2016. Beschäftigung Projektionen. Industrie-Besetzungs-Matrix-Daten, nach Besetzung Insgesamt, alle Berufe XLS GovTrack aggregiert öffentlich verfügbaren Daten über die Zahl der Bundesgesetze verabschiedet während jeder zweijährigen Kongress-Sitzung. Abgeleitete Gesetze: Gesetzte Gesetze: Gesetzte Gesetze und gemeinsame Beschlüsse (beide Gesetzentwürfe und gemeinsame Beschlüsse können als Gesetz verabschiedet werden) Beschlossene Entschließungen: Beschlossene Entschließungen (für gemeinsame und gleichzeitige Beschlüsse, dies bedeutet, beide Kammern bestanden) Got A Vote: Gesetzentwürfe: Gesetzentwürfe und Entschließungen, die eine Abstimmung über die Passage nicht bestanden oder eine signifikante Stimmabgabe wie Cloture, Übertretung unter Aussetzung oder Unterschiede beeinträchtigten Vetoed Bills (wo Override): Rechnungen, die waren Veto und das Veto wurde nicht durch den Kongress überschritten Andere Gesetzgebung: Rechnungen und Entschließungen, die eingeführt wurden, an Ausschuss oder berichtet von Ausschuss, aber hatte keine weitere Aktion Brookings Institution auch aggregiert Zahlen über Kongress-Aktivität. This data set covers 1947-2013. Src: Raffaela Wakeman et al. July 9, 2013 (updated August 2014). Vital Statistics on Congress: Data on the U. S. Congress A Joint Effort from Brookings and the American Enterprise Institute. PDF This collection of data includes the following indicators, dates, and sources: Land Use urbandeveloped km 2. 1992- 2100 . USGS forest km 2. 1992-2100 amp 1982-2012, USGS amp USDA forest (mil hectares), 2010- 2030(2100) . Pardee deforestation (mil hectares), 2010- 2100 . Pardee cropland km 2. 1992-2100 amp 1982-2012, USGS amp USDA grasslandshrubland km 2. 1992- 2100 amp 1982-2012, USGS amp USDA haypasture km 2. 1992- 2100 amp 1982-2012, USGS amp USDA wetland km 2. 1992- 2100 . USGS Conservation Reserve Program, 1985-2012, USDA agricultural demand (mil met tons), 2010- 2030(2100) . Pardee agricultural productions (mil met tons), 2010- 2030(2100) . Pardee yield in agriculture (tonshectar), 2010- 2030(2100) . Pardee Air Quality carbon emissions from fossil fuels (bil tons), 2010- 2100 . Pardee carbon emissions cumulative change (bil tons), 2010- 2100 . Pardee Water Use water usage (cubic Km), 2010- 2030(2100) . Pardee water use cumulative change (cubic Km), 2010- 2100 . Pardee Mining active mines, 2004-2013, CDC Climate Change max temperatures, 1950- 2099 . USGS precipitation, 1950- 2099 . USGS snowpack, 1950- 2099 . USGS soil water storage, 1950- 2099 . USGS sea-level rise, 1800- 2100 . NCA citing Kemp, Church, Narem, Parris, Etheridge sea-level warming, 1900-2010, NCA citing Chavez, Etheridge extreme precipitation events, 1900-2000, NCA citing Kunkel water demand change, 2005 2060 . NCA citing Brown water supply risk, 2050 . NCA citing Roy et al. atmospheric carbon dioxide, 1900-2000, NCA citing Etheridge sea surface pH, 1900-2000, NCA citing Etheridge Northeaster fisheries shifting north, 1970-2010, NCA citing Pinsky and Fogarty The U. S. Geological Survey tracks and forecasts several categories of land use, with charts and maps showing change under four different scenarios from 1992 through 2100. The land-use categories include acreage that is 1) urbandeveloped, 2) forest, 3) cropland, 4) grasslandshrubland, 5) haypasture, and 6) wetland. The USDAs National Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) has published a periodic National Resources Inventory (NRI) since 1977, with data being collected annually since 2000. The contemporary reports give acreage counts for non-Federal lands, including cropland, Conservation Reserve Program lands, pastureland, rangeland, forest land, and other rural land. Table 2 8211 Land Coveruse of non-Federal rural land, 1982-2012 (quinquennial) In thousands of acres, with margins of error Note: Acreages for Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) land are established through geospatial processes and administrative records therefore, statistical margins of error are not applicable and shown as a dashed line (8211). CRP was not implemented until 1985. Table 9 8211 Changes in land coveruse between 1982 and 2012 In thousands of acres, with margins of error Similar tables for five-year intervals within the 1982-2012 are also presented in the report (pp.41-46). Cropland A land coveruse category that includes areas used for the production of adapted crops for harvest. Two subcategories of cropland are recognized: cultivated and noncultivated. Cultivated land comprises land in row crops or close-grown crops and also other cultivated cropland for example, hayland or pastureland that is in a rotation with row or close-grown crops. Noncultivated cropland includes permanent hayland and horticultural cropland. Pastureland A land coveruse category of land managed primarily for the production of introduced forage plants for livestock grazing. Pastureland cover may consist of a single species in a pure stand, a grass mixture, or a grass-legume mixture. Management usually consists of cultural treatments: fertilization, weed control, reseeding, renovation, and control of grazing. For the NRI, includes land that has a vegetative cover of grasses, legumes, andor forbs, regardless of whether or not it is being grazed by livestock. Rangeland A broad land coveruse category on which the climax or potential plant cover is composed principally of native grasses, grasslike plants, forbs or shrubs suitable for grazing and browsing, and introduced forage species that are managed like rangeland. This would include areas where introduced hardy and persistent grasses, such as crested wheatgrass, are planted and such practices as deferred grazing, burning, chaining, and rotational grazing are used, with little or no chemicals or fertilizer being applied. Grasslands, savannas, many wetlands, some deserts, and tundra are considered to be rangeland. Certain communities of low forbs and shrubs, such as mesquite, chaparral, mountain shrub, and pinyon-juniper, are also included as rangeland. For projected data on farmlands, 2014-2025, see the Crop Acreage section of the Food research round-up, citing USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025. International Futures is a forecasting platform developed by Barry Hughes, based at the Pardee Center at the University of Denver. Among its many forecasts are a small set of agriculture and environment indicators. Forecast data through 2100 is available at the site for each indicator, if you click through. For example, heres the chart for millions of hectares of forest land through 2100: The charting tools offer several options, including specialized displays for particular issues. For example, the Advanced Sustainability Analysis. which calculates fossil fuel use, carbon emissions, deforestation, and water use in terms of intensity per million GDP, thousand population, and thousand labor. These calculations are also forecast through 2100, accessible by changing the select year parameter of the display. TO DO: EXTRACT ANNUAL DATA POINTS BY CLICKING THROUGH ON THE INDIVIDUAL INDICATORS FROM THE REPORT. THIS ALSO GIVES ACCESS TO THE FORECAST FIGURES THROUGH 2100. This 2010 report includes a round-up of recent projections of forest land conversion in the United States. The report discusses socioeconomic drivers of land-use change affecting forest area, and defines five categories of change: afforestation, deforestation, forest fragmentation, forest parcelization, and increased numbers of structures on forest land. Heres the summary of projected land-base changes affecting US forests: Src: Ralph Alig et al. 2010. Conversions of Forest Land: Trends, Determinants, Projections, and Policy Considerations . In Advances in Threat Assessment and Their Application to Forest and Rangeland Management. U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest and Southern Research Stations. p.14 TO DO: EXTRACT ANNUAL DATA POINTS Src: International Futures. Accessed August 22, 2016. Advanced Sustainability Analysis USA, Working File The Pardee Center. University of Denver. More data on carbon emissions can be found under the Energy Mix blog post . TO DO: EXTRACT ANNUAL DATA POINTS Src: International Futures. Accessed August 22, 2016. Advanced Sustainability Analysis USA, Working File The Pardee Center. University of Denver. TO DO: CONTACT MSHA TO CONFIRM SOURCE, AND INQUIRE ABOUT OLDER DATA. In 2013, NASA released climate projection data through 2099 for the continental United States that is being used to quantify climate risks to the nations agriculture, forests, rivers and cities. The excerpts below shows the change for the 1950-2005 historic period versus the 2050-2074 forecast period. Max temperatures are trending up, precipitation is staying about the same, snow pack is trending down (dramatically in the Western mountains), and water stored in the soil column is trending down. NASA NEX DCP30 National Climate Change Viewer The full NEX-DCP30 dataset includes 33 climate models for historical and 21st century simulations for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios developed for AR5. We include 30 of the 33 models in the viewer that have both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 data the remaining two scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP6, are available in the NEX-DCP30 data set. The NCCV allows the user to visualize projected changes in climate (maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation) and the water balance (snow water equivalent, runoff, soil water storage and evaporative deficit) for any state, county and USGS Hydrologic Unit (HUC). To create a manageable number of permutations for the viewer, we averaged the climate and water balance data into four climatology periods: 19502005, 20252049, 20502074, and 20752099. The National Climate Assessment (NCA), conducted by the U. S. Global Change Research Program, aggregates a mix of historic quantitative data, data projections, and qualitative descriptions of the impacts of the climate change trends that are being seen and are most likely to continue. Impacts on seven sectors are described: human health, water, energy, transportation, agriculture, forests, and ecosystems. Citations are provided in-context below. The source information for the NCA report is at the very bottom. One measure of heavy precipitation events is a two-day precipitation total that is exceeded on average only once in a 5-year period, also known as the once-in-five year event. As this extreme precipitation index for 1901-2012 shows, the occurrence of such events has become much more common in recent decades. Changes are compared to the period 1901-1960, and do not include Alaska or Hawaii. (Figure source: adapted from Kunkel et al. 2013 (7)). p.25 Figure shows estimated, observed, and possible amounts of global sea level rise from 1800 to 2100, relative to the year 2000. Estimates from proxy data (4) (for example, based on sediment records) are shown in red (1800-1890, pink band shows uncertainty), tide gauge data in blue for 1880-2009 (5), and satellite observations are shown in green from 1993 to 2012 (6). The future scenarios range from 0.66 feet to 6.6 feet in 2100 (7). These scenarios are not based on climate model simulations, but rather reflect the range of possible scenarios based on other kinds of scientific studies. The orange line at right shows the currently projected range of sea level rise of 1 to 4 feet by 2100, which falls within the larger risk-based scenario range. The large projected range reflects uncertainty about how glaciers and ice sheets will react to the warming ocean, the warming atmosphere, and changing winds and currents. As seen in the observations, there are year-to-year variations in the trend. (Figure source: Adapted from Parris et al. 2012 (7), with contributions from NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory). p.30 The effects of climate change, primarily associated with increasing temperatures and potential evapotranspiration, are projected to significantly increase water demand across most of the United States. Maps show percent change from 2005 to 2060 in projected demand for water assuming (a) change in population and socioeconomic conditions consistent with the A1B emissions scenario (increasing emissions through the middle of this century, with gradual reductions thereafter), but with no change in climate, and (b) combined changes in population, socioeconomic conditions, and climate according to the A1B emissions scenario. (Figure source: Brown et al. 2013 (4).) p.43 Climate change is projected to reduce water supplies in some parts of the country. This is true in areas where precipitation is projected to decline, and even in some areas where precipitation is expected to increase. Compared to 10 of counties today, by 2050, 32 of counties will be at high or extreme risk of water shortages. Numbers of counties are in parentheses in key. Projections assume continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions through 2050 and a slow decline thereafter (A1B scenario). (Figure source: Reprinted with permission from Roy et al. 2012 (7). Copyright American Chemical Society). p.44 Key Climate Variables Affecting Agricultural Productivity Frost-free season is projected to lengthen across much of the nation. Taking advantage of the increasing length of the growing season and changing planting dates could allow planting of more diverse crop rotations, which can be an effective adaptation strategy. The annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (less than 0.01 inches of rain) is projected to increase, especially in the western and southern parts of the nation, negatively affecting crop and animal production. The trend toward more consecutive dry days and higher temperatures will increase evaporation and add stress to limited water resources, affecting irrigation and other water uses. Hot nights are defined as nights with a minimum temperature higher than 98 of the minimum temperatures between 1971 and 2000. Such nights are projected to increase throughout the nation. High nighttime temperatures can reduce grain yields and increase stress on animals, resulting in reduced rates of meat, milk, and egg production. Sea surface temperatures for the ocean surrounding the U. S. and its territories have risen by more than 0.9F over the past century. (Figure source: adapted from Chavez et al. 2011 (3)). p.58 As heat-trapping gases, primarily carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) (panel A), have increased over the past decades, not only has air temperature increased worldwide, but so has the ocean surface temperature (panel B). The increased ocean temperature, combined with melting of glaciers and ice sheets on land, is leading to higher sea levels (panel C). Increased air and ocean temperatures are also causing the continued, dramatic decline in Arctic sea ice during the summer (panel D). Additionally, the ocean is becoming more acidic as increased atmospheric CO 2 dissolves into it (panel E). (CO 2 data from Etheridge 2010, Tans and Keeling 2012, and NOAA NCDC 2012 SST data from NOAA NCDC 2012 and Smith et al. 2008 Sea level data from CSIRO 2012 and Church and White 2011 Sea ice data from University of Illinois 2012 pH data from Doney et al. 2012 (4,5)). p.59 4. D. M. Etheridge, et al. 2010. Law Dome Ice Core 2000-Year CO 2 . CH 4 . and N 2 O Data, IGBP PAGESWorld Data Center for Paleoclimatology . Data Contribution Series 2010-070. NOAANCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder, CO. University of Illinois. 2012. Sea Ice Dataset University of Illinois, Department of Atmospheric Sciences. 5. P. Tans and R. Keeling. 2012. Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Full Mauna Loa CO 2 Record .8221 NOAAs Earth System Research Laboratory. Ocean species are shifting northward along U. S. coastlines as ocean temperatures rise. As a result, over the past 40 years, more northern ports have gradually increased their landings of four marine species compared to earlier landings. While some species move northward out of an area, other species move in from the south. This kind of information can inform decisions about how to adapt to climate change. Such adaptations take time and have costs, as local knowledge and equipment are geared to the species that have long been present in an area. (Figure source: adapted from Pinsky and Fogerty 2012 (19)). p.61 TO DO: EXTRACT DATA FROM SOURCES This collection of data includes the following indicators, dates, and sources: Acreage urban acreage, 1992- 2100 amp 2000- 2050 amp 1950-2010, USGS amp Lincoln Inst amp US Census Population urban population, 1950- 2050 . United Nations young adults by proximity to center, 19902012, UVA elderly by proximity to center, 19902012, UVA white residents by proximity to center, 19902012, UVA black residents by proximity to center, 19902012, UVA population by proximity to center, 19902012 amp 20002010, UVA amp US Census population distribution by proximity to center, 20002010, US Census Jobs metro area jobs, 20022011 5-yr period, US Census skilled jobs by proximity to center, 1980-2010 decadal, US Census Education full-time workers with BA by proximity to center, 1980-2010 decadal, US Census educational attainment by proximity to center, 19902012, UVA DesirabilityWalkability competitiveness of city centers, 20022011 5-yr period, City ObservatoryUS Census cities most likely to be WalkUPs in the future, GWU Personal Income per capita income by proximity to center, 19902012, UVA proportion residents living below poverty line by proximity to center, 19902012, UVA home prices by proximity to center, 1980-2010 decadal, US Census Housing and Density occupied housing units by proximity to center, 19902012, UVA percent of rented housing by proximity to center, 19902012, UVA population density by proximity to center, 19902012, UVA NOTE: Might be worth talking to someone from MITs Center for Advanced Urbanism, or an editor from City Lab or Next City for suggestions of additional downtown indicators and possible data sources, as well as more forecast data, which is quite lacking in this round-up. keywords: urban development central business districts city centers data desired but lacking: traffic congestion construction trends walkability (longitudinal data) energy consumption per capita (vs. rural) The U. S. Geological Survey tracks and forecasts several categories of land use, with charts and maps showing change under four different scenarios from 1992 through 2100. The land-use categories include acreage that is 1) urbandeveloped, 2) forest, 3) cropland, 4) grasslandshrubland, 5) haypasture, and 6) wetland. Researchers at the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science Center have developed the FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-cover change (FORE-SCE) model that is based on consistent and systematic historical data derived from Landsat satellite imagery of rates and spatial patterns of land cover change over many years. As part of USGS research to assess potential greenhouse gas fluxes and carbon storage in vegetated landscapes, FORE-SCE has been used to produce projected, annual land-cover maps from 1992 through 2100 for four future scenarios for the conterminous United States. The land cover maps provide 250-meter resolution information for 17 different land-use and land-cover classes, offering an unprecedented combination of thematic detail and spatial resolution for land-cover projections. The four land cover scenarios that were modeled are based, in turn, on carefully-defined environmental scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ensuring that the projected land cover maps may be used in assessment frameworks consistent with IPCC scenario characteristics. The scenarios vary in terms of both climate and socioeconomic conditions in the future. The A1B scenario is characterized by very high economic growth, strong technological innovation, and open, global economies and societies. Projected land use changes include sprawling urban growth, agricultural expansion, and heavy use of forested lands for wood products. The A2 scenario is characterized by moderate economic growth, very high population growth, and less open economies and societies. Land use changes include very high urban growth, massive expansion of agricultural lands to feed a growing population, and loss of natural landscapes. The B1 scenario has high economic growth, moderate population growth, and a focus on environmental sustainability. Land-use change is modest, with compact urban growth and modest increases in agricultural land. The B2 scenario has moderate economic growth, low population growth, and a focus on environmental sustainability. Natural landscapes are preserved and even expanded in this scenario, with a reduction in lands devoted to agriculture. NOTE: This PDF includes the same charts for Forest, Cropland, GrasslandShrubland, HayPasture, and Wetland Excerpt Src: Jon Campbell. Sep 2014. Modeling a Changing American Landscape USGS Science Features. contact: Terry Sohl, sohlusgs. gov TO DO: CONTACT TERRY SOHL, sohlusgs. gov, FOR DATA POINTS. MIGHT BE AVAILABLE VIA ONE OF THE (HUGE) EXCEL FILES ON THIS PAGE . The Lincoln Institute has also projected urban land coverage based on a 1990-2000 sample of 120 global cities. Three projections are made based on three different assumptions about density change over time: (a) no density change (b) a 1 percent annual density decline and (c) a 2 percent annual density decline. Demographia, maintained by Wendell Cox (a pro-automobile urban planner who favors low-density planning), has aggregated a few urbanizations statistics from the US Census Bureau. Indicators include urban land area (square miles), urban population, urban households, population density, and household density, as well as annual percent change for all of the above. Decadal data points are available from 1950 through 2010. TO DO: EXTRACTCONFIRM DATA. Proportions of urban and rural population in the current country or area in per cent of the total population, 1950 to 2050. Total urban and rural population Urban population of the current country by size class of its urban agglomerations in 2014. The light blue area is a residual category, which includes all cities and urban agglomerations with a population of less than 300,000 inhabitants. The size classes correspond to the following legend: src: United Nations. 2014 Country Profile: United States of America , in World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. TO DO: EXTRACT DATA. ANNUAL DATA AVAILABLE HERE . dark red 8211 2012 orange 8211 1990 src: Luke Juday. Accessed August 19, 2016. The Changing Shape of America8217s Metro Areas . University of Virginia. Demographics Research Group. citing: 1990 Census data and the 2008-2012 American Community Survey Based on the Census Bureaus data for the 51 major metropolitan areas (those with more than 1 million population). City Observatory analyzed Census Bureau data from the 2002-2007 period to the 2007-2011 period and finds that after a long period of decentralization, economic and demographic indicators are now favoring city centers. When we compared the aggregate economic performance of urban cores to the surrounding metro periphery over the four years from 2007 to 2011, we found that city centerswhich we define as the area within 3 miles of the center of each regions central business districtgrew jobs at a 0.5 percent annual rate. Over the same period, employment in the surrounding peripheral portion of metropolitan areas declined 0.1 percent per year. When it comes to job growth, city centers are out-performing the surrounding areas in 21 of the 41 metropolitan areas we examined. This center-led growth represents the reversal of a historic trend of job de-centralization that has persisted for the past half century. Economists at Columbia University and the Getulio Vargas Foundation have also analyzed Census Bureau data from 1980 to 2010, finding that center cities and downtown living are making a come back. Their analysis is based on data from 27 heavily populated U. S. cities, from the CBD to 35 miles away from the center of the cities. Their report includes an interesting graphic on skilled jobs, although these are not the exclusive focus of the report. Elsewhere in this roundup, Ive also excerpted a graphic for home prices and and education which follow the same trend. Full-time workers with at least a bachelors degree working 40 or 50 hours per week: The data for men show similar trends, with shares rising a bit more toward the periphery. dark red 8211 2012 orange 8211 1990 red 8211 1990-2012 change black 8211 baseline change for whole metro area src: Luke Juday. Accessed August 19, 2016. The Changing Shape of America8217s Metro Areas . University of Virginia. Demographics Research Group. citing: 1990 Census data and the 2008-2012 American Community Survey In City Observatorys analysis of 2002-2007 and 2007-2011, referred to above, they also came up with a competitiveness calculation which favors city centers. We undertook a shift-share analysis that allowed is to separate out the effects of changing industry mix from relative competitiveness. The data make it clear that city centers are more competitive in 2011 than they were in 2007. While city centers had a negative competitive effect in the 2002-07 period, their relative competitiveness for industry has been equal to peripheral locations from 2007-11. Researchers at The George Washington University School of Business identified and analyzed 558 walkable urban places (WalkUPs) in the 30 largest metropolitan areas in the United Station, and then ranked the 30 metros according to their current walkable urbanism. This research, published in 2014, is an update to the Brookings Institutions initial scoring in 2007. The researchers find that the most walkable urban areas are correlated with substantially higher GDPs per capita and percentages of college graduates over 25 years old. They also find that walkable urban office spaces command a 74 rent-per-sq-foot premium over rents in drivable suburban areas. They assert that walkable urban development is not limited to center cities, but includes the urbanization of suburbs. They predict future demand for tens of millions square feet of walkable urban development and hundreds of new WalkUPs. Walkable urban places are defined as having 1.4 million square feet or more of office space andor 340,000 square feet or more retail space, as well as a Walk Score value greater than or equal to 70 at the 100 percent location of the WalkUP. Future Ranking Note: This ranking refers to the level of expected future walkability, but does not define a particular point in time in the future. Although there are only 6 metro areas currently ranked as highly walkable, 9 are expected to be highly walkable in the future. citing: CoStar for office and retail data Walk Score index Local transit agency web sites The American Community Survey for educational attainment amp population data U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis for per capita GDP dark red 8211 2012 orange 8211 1990 red 8211 1990-2012 change black 8211 baseline change for whole metro area src: Luke Juday. Accessed August 19, 2016. The Changing Shape of America8217s Metro Areas . University of Virginia. Demographics Research Group. citing: 1990 Census data and the 2008-2012 American Community Survey dark red 8211 2012 orange 8211 1990 src: Luke Juday. Accessed August 19, 2016. The Changing Shape of America8217s Metro Areas . University of Virginia. Demographics Research Group. citing: 1990 Census data and the 2008-2012 American Community Survey The University of Virginias Demographics Research Group has analyzed the demographic trends of 66 major US metropolitan areas with regard to their distance from the city center. City Lab reports that, in many cases, the findings help to support Aarons Renns new donut model of cities, although some cities continue to follow other growth models, referred to as magnetic cities and old donut cities. In the old donut model, growth and wealth are concentrated in the suburbs. In the magnetic model, growth and income are highest in the center and gradually decline all the way to the periphery. In the new donut model, city centers and outer-ring suburbs have the highest performing indicators, but the inner ring suburbs are characterized by decline. and also citing: Luke Juday. March 2015. The Changing Shape of American Cities . University of Virginia. Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. which cites: 1990 Census data and the 2008-2012 American Community Survey The University of Virginia also released a charting tool associated with their report. In addition to showing charts for individual cities, it also includes charts for a composite of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. The charts below (also excerpted elsewhere in this roundup) show the new donut model. dark red 8211 2012 orange 8211 1990 red 8211 1990-2012 change black 8211 baseline change for whole metro area src: Luke Juday. Accessed August 19, 2016. The Changing Shape of America8217s Metro Areas . University of Virginia. Demographics Research Group. A US Census Bureau report from 2012 also shows a new donut model of population change for the period 2000-2010, although Wendell Cox argues that the growth in city centers is over-exaggerated. Cox created the following graphics (also excerpted above) based on the Census Bureaus data for the 51 major metropolitan areas (those with more than 1 million population). Cox puts it this way, and its true, based on the data: The one percent flocked to downtown and the 99 percent flocked to outside downtown. The literal figures are 1.3 and 98.7. increased mobility for everyone greater need for proximity more of the same more exurbia more growth at the core more gentrified neighborhoods with trees and shopping more dev in the suburbs with skyscrapers and higher density for a multi-nucleated urban system Amanda Kolson Hurley. June 6, 2016. The Future of Suburbia , according to MIT. Architect. Somewhat critical review of the MIT Center for Advanced Urbanism conference on suburbs, spring 2016. Lists a few other centers and researchers examining suburbs. Not a lot of data sources though. Heres a news article from MIT promoting the conference. Vision of the future of cities as impacted by driverless cars. Very short. The elderly, young, and disabled will be more mobile. Parking lots could be turned into green spaces, or offices or housing. People might spend less time commuting, or they might commute farther. Downtowns AND distant villages could both become more appealing. Suburbs may dwindle. This collection of data includes the following indicators, dates, and sources: Retail Space shopping center growth, 1975-2014, Intl Council of Shopping Centers number of private retail establishments, 2001-2015, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) store count by category, 20102015 2020 . Kantar Retail store square footage by category, 20102015 2020 . Kantar Retail Consumer Spending indexed personal spending, 1950-2016, Trading Economics percent personal spending, 20162017 2020 . Trading Economics personal expenditures deflated, 1901-2003, BLS food, clothing, and housing expenditures, 1901-2003, BLS food expenditures, 1901-2003, BLS non-necessities expenditures, 1901-2003, BLS Time Spent Shopping avg hours per day purchasing consumer goods, 2003-2015, BLS avg of people purchasing consumer goods per day, 2003-2015, BLS avg hours per day for persons so-engaged purchasing consumer goods, 2003-2015, BLS Online Shopping retail ecommerce sales as a percent of total US retail sales, 2014-2019, eMarketer worldwide ecommerce sales growth, 2013-2019, eMarketer US retail sales as a of worldwide retail, 2014-2019, eMarketer US ecommerce sales as a of total worldwide retail sales, 2014-2019, eMarketer retail formats distribution, 20102015 2020 . Kantar Retail online share of sales by category, 20092014 2020 . Kantar Retail Mall Habits avg mall visits per month, 2012, ICSC avg length of mall visits, 2012, ICSC avg monthly spending at malls, 20102012, ICSC Retail Space With the U. S. having an estimated 48 square feet of retail space per citizen, the footprint is poised to decline 8220pretty fast,8221 Jan Kniffen said. 8220On an apples-to-apples basis, we have twice as much per-capita retail space as any other place in the world. The U. K. is second. They8217re half of what we are. So, yes, we are the most over-stored place in the world,8221 he told CNBC8217s 8220Squawk Box.8221 In his view, about 400 of America8217s 1,100 enclosed malls will fail in the coming years. Of the survivors, about 250 will thrive and the rest will struggle. Likewise, Macy8217s probably needs 500 of its roughly 800 existing stores, he said. Note: This article, though published a year earlier, takes a completely opposite tone of the one above. Amanda Kolson Hurley. March 2015. Shopping Malls Aren8217t Actually Dying. The Atlantic: CityLab. Between 2000 and 2008, U. S. shopping center space gross leasable area grew by an annual average rate of 2.6 or a net addition of 169 million square feet (sq. ft.) of retail space per year. However, beginning in 2009, the supply increment slowed dramatically to about one-tenth of that pace. In 2013, the addition of new retail supply grew at its slowest pace in more than 40 years. According to Cushman amp Wakefield, over the next three years (2014-2016), the addition of new supply will pick up somewhat as 120.5 million sq. ft. are added to U. S. shopping center inventory. This moderated supply growth is a positive sign going forward (see Figure 2). According to the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total number of U. S. private retail establishments grew from 1,023,696 in 2011 to 1,028,242 in 2012 an increase of 4,546 establishments. Preliminary 2013 figures show a further increase of 7,887 retail establishments over 2012 figures to 1,036,129. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks the number of establishments as part of its Workplace Trends tracking. The following chart and data reflect the number of private retail establishments from 2001 through 2015. src: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Accessed August 8, 2016. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Series Id: ENUUS00020544-45 Area: US Total Industry: NAICS 44-45 Retail trade Owner: Private Type: Number of Establishments linked via IAG: Retail Trade 8211 NAICS 44-45 Over the next five years, Kantar Retail forecasts that U. S. retail square footage will grow more slowly than the number of stores in other words, the average store built will be smaller. Conversely, in the previous five years, square footage grew more quickly than stores, resulting in the addition of relatively larger stores (Figure 7). As Figure 7 indicates, nearly half of new stores over the next five years will be smaller footprint drug, discounter, and convenience stores. As a result, retailers will need to deliver even greater differentiation and specialization from this growth in available points of commerce. Shrunken versions of larger boxes will not suffice. Shoppers will demand that small formats earn their reason for being. Going forward, we expect greater efforts toward differentiation in the small-box space, with in-store marketing (versus simply merchandising) gaining traction. src: Kantar Retail. 2015. REinvent Format: Adapting to 21st-Century Retailing Pp.9, 15 Press contact: Victoria Bradshaw, victoria. bradshawkantarretail EMAILED KANTAR RETAIL 8916 TO INQUIRE ABOUT ADDITIONAL DATA POINTS (FOR THIS AND ALL OTHER KANTAR CHARTS MENTIONED IN THIS RESEARCH ROUNDUP). Trading Economics make a short, five-year forecast (currently, to 2020) of various US consumption indicators, based on US Bureau of economic Analysis (BEA) data going back to 1969. Each indicator has its own page summarizing current data and the forecast to 2020, along with a chart which can be expanded to show data back to 1950. Each indicators page also includes a summary of the forecasts for related indicators. For example, the data on the United States Personal Spending Forecast 2016-2020 page. (Note: No units are given in this summary. Generally, the much larger numbers are billions of USD, and the smaller numbers are percentages or index values.) Trading Economics forecasts are frequently updated (several times per week). The Bureau of Labor Statistics published a 100-year compilation of national consumer spending data from 1901 through 2003. While no two families spend money in exactly the same manner, indicators suggest that families allocate their expenditures with some regularity and predictability. Consumption patterns indicate the priorities that families place on the satisfaction of the following needs: Food, clothing, housing, heating and energy, health, transportation, furniture and appliances, communication, culture and education, and entertainment. In this report, economic and demographic profiles of U. S. households in the aggregate, as well as profiles of households in New York City and Boston, are presented. New York City and Boston are included because they are two of the countrys oldest urban areas. The report examines how, over a 100-year period, standards of living have changed as the U. S. economy has progressed from one based on domestic agriculture to one geared toward providing global services. The report provides an in-depth assessment of U. S. households at nine points in time, beginning with 1901 and ending with 200203. The text highlights changes in family structure and economic conditions and examines factors that have altered and influenced both society and households. (P.1) During the 100-year period, household expenditure patterns also demonstrated great variability. In real dollars, calculated with 1901 as the base, expenditures also demonstrated a notable increase. In 1901, as noted, the average U. S. family had 769 in expenditures. By 200203, that familys expenditures would have risen to 1,848, a 2.4-fold increase. (Chart 40, pp.66-67) The material well-being of families in the United States improved dramatically, as demonstrated by the change over time in the percentage of expenditures allocated for food, clothing, and housing. In 1901, the average U. S. family devoted 79.8 percent of its spending to these necessities. By 200203, allocations on necessities had been reduced substantially, for U. S. families to 50.1 percent of spending. (Chart 41, pp.66, 68) The continued and significant decline over the century in the share of expenditures allocated for food also reflected improved living standards. In 1901, U. S. households allotted 42.5 percent of their expenditures for food by 200203, foods share of spending had dropped to just 13.2 percent. (Chart 41, p.68-69) In 200203, the average U. S. family could allocate 49.9 percent (20,333) of total expenditures for a variety of discretionary consumer goods and services, while the average family in 1901 could allocate only 20.2 percent, or 155, for discretionary spending eg: family car, reading and education, personal care products, recreation and entertainment, healthcare, alcohol, charitable giving, etc. (Chart 43, p.70) Time Spent Shopping The American Time Use Survey has been conducted annually since 2003. Among many other indicators, it tracks the amount of time Americans age 15 and older spend purchasing goods and services. src: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2003-2015. American Time Use Survey. ATUS Tables . Table A-1. Time spent in detailed primary activities and percent of the civilian population engaging in each activity, averages per day by sex, annual averages. All years, 2003-2015 NOTE: The Purchasing goods and services section of the source table is further itemized. The full itemization is as follows: Purchasing goods and services gtConsumer goods purchases gtgtGrocery shopping gtProfessional and personal care services gtgtFinancial services and banking gtgtMedical and care services gtgtPersonal care services gtHousehold services gtgtHome maintenance, repair, decoration, and construction (not done by self) gtgtVehicle maintenance and repair services (not done by self) gtGovernment services gtTravel related to purchasing goods and services The itemization follows from greatest to smallest use of time, EXCEPT for travel, which is the second largest use of time. Grocery shopping generally accounts for about a quarter of the broader consumer goods category, and this is true over the full time period with a slight increase over time (groceries generally hold steady, but the broader category total slowly decreases over time). Retail Ecommerce Sales as a Percent of Total Retail Sales in the US, 2014-2019 2014 6.4 2015 7.1 2016 7.8 2017 8.4 2018 9.1 2019 9.8 Retail Ecommerce Sales Worldwide, 2014-2019 Showing total ecommerce retail sales, percent change, and percent of total retail sales. Retail ecommerce sales in North America will rise 14.4 this year to reach 367.44 billion, largely due to increased spending from existing digital shoppers. The region will see consistent double-digit growth through 2019, fueled by expanding online categories, increased average order values and growing mcommerce sales. eMarketers previous forecasts US online retail spending 2015 7.1 2016 7.7 2017 8.3 2018 8.9 Figure 3: Percent Sales Importance of Retail Formats 8211 2010 to 2020 US Non-store retail, driven by online today, and likely mobile and tablet commerce in 2020, is projected to be the fastest growing retail channel in the future. Conversely, Supermarket, Drug and especially Mass channel retailers are likely to face a tough growth environment in the coming 2015-2020 periodeven if job and income growth surmount global pressures. Likewise, Supercenters, as a percent of total US sales, will decrease to 12.7 from 14.4 today. CCs Note: Im trying to flesh these single-year data points out. Hoping to get more data from ICSC on the items theyre responsible for below. JCDecaux is an international, outdoor advertising company. They have collected and published the following statistics on mall shopping (most stats seem to be from 2012). 75 of all Americans visit a mall at least once a month. 2 On average, shoppers visit 3.4 times per month and stay 1 hour and 24 minutes. 1 Average Time Spent Shopping by Age 1 Ages 14-17. 95 minutes Ages 18-24. 81 minutes Ages 25-34. 79 minutes Ages 35-44. 86 minutes Ages 45-54. 88 minutes Ages 55-64. 87 minutes Ages 65. 89 minutes Average Money Spent Per Visit 4 Specialty Stores 109.91 Anchor Stores 92.80 Monthly Shopping Frequency by Age 4 Ages 12-17. 3.7 times Ages 18-24. 3.2 times Ages 25-34. 3.0 times Ages 35-44. 2.9 times Ages 45-54. 2.9 times Ages 55-64. 3.0 times Ages 65. 3.6 times Shopper spending at malls per month increased from 316.80 in 2010 to 330.82 in 2012. 1 citing 1 8211 ICSC (International Council of Shopping Centers) PR: Noelle Malone, nmaloneicsc. org EMAILED 8816 8211 GOT A REPLY 8211 EXPECTING UPDATED DATA SOON. 2 8211 Journal of Shopping Center Research 1994-2007 full text archives freely available, but no search Couldnt track the source 3 8211 Glimcher Reality Trust 4 8211 Alexander Babbage, Inc. 2030: Half of America8217s shopping malls have closed For much of the 20th century, shopping malls were an intrinsic part of American culture. At their peak in the mid-1990s, the country was building 140 new shopping malls every year. But from the early 2000s onward, underperforming and vacant malls known as 8220greyfield8221 and 8220dead mall8221 estates became an emerging problem. In 2007, a year before the Great Recession, no new malls were built in America, for the first time in half a century. Only a single new mall, City Creek Center Mall in Salt Lake City, was built between 2007 and 2012. The economic health of surviving malls continued to decline, with high vacancy rates creating an oversupply glut. A number of changes had occurred in shopping and driving habits. More and more people were living in cities, with fewer interested in driving and people in general spending less than before. Tech-savvy Millennials (also known as Generation Y), in particular, had embraced new ways of living. The Internet had made it far easier to identify the cheapest products and to order items without having to be physically there in person. In earlier decades, this had mostly affected digital goods such as music, books and videos, which could be obtained in a matter of seconds but even clothing was eventually possible to download, thanks to the widespread proliferation of 3D printing in the home. Many of these abandoned malls are now being converted to other uses, such as housing. The Future Real Estate Shopping Experience undated scenario No real estate agents. VR-based anytime tours that let you see what your stuff would look like in the new place, try different landscaping and remodels. A machine-learning algorithm monitors your experience to learn your likes and dislikes, recommending other homes to visit. An AI helps you to write your bid and contact your bank to make an offer on the spot. Global forces affecting the consumer sector in 2030 Exhibit 1 Five dominant forces and an underlying set of trends will drive change in the consumer landscape over the next 15 years. Exhibit 2 Trends that could most affect consumer companies. PwC conducts an annual consumer survey, Total Retail. The results of the survey published in 2015 Harvard Business Review presented a near-future shopping scenario in the opening of its 2011 article on the future of shopping. The article predicted that the scenario would arrive within a handful of years (not quite). The article closes with some suggestions for how retail stores can use digital technologies innovatively to meet emerging consumer desires. src: Darrell K. Rigby. December 2011. The Future of Shopping . Harvard Business Review. Other Possible SourcesContacts Maureen McAvey Maureen McAvey is the Bucksbaum Family Chair for Retail at the Urban Land Institute (ULI) in Washington, D. C. She concentrates on urban retail and has led several special projects around demographics and future urban development. She is also a senior staff adviser to ULIs Building Healthy Places Initiative. Src Email: Maureen. McAveyuli. org AT Kearney Conducts surveys of consumer shopping preferences and behaviors. EG: The Omnichancel Consumer Preferences Study Optical Materials: CVD diamond extends Raman laser capabilities ANDREW BENNETT and HARPREET DHILLON Single-crystal diamond enables improved Raman frequency shifting of high-power laser systems, enabling engineers to access new wavelengths with excellent beam quality in the visible and mid-IR spectrum. Diamond material produced via microwave plasma chemical vapor deposition (CVD) is enabling a multitude of optical applications due to its range of extreme properties. Transparency from the ultraviolet (UV) through the infrared (IR) wavelength range is complemented by the highest thermal conductivity of any bulk material, high laser damage threshold, low thermal expansion, and chemical inertness. A new, low-absorption-grade, single-crystal diamond that enables Raman frequency shifting for high-power laser systems has been developed by Element Six to expand these capabilities. It allows engineers to access new wavelengths with excellent beam quality in the yellow part of the spectrum for medical use and mid-IR wavelengths for eye-safe applications. Frequency shifting There are two key methods of moving to longer wavelengths: optical parametric oscillators (OPOs) and Raman lasers. The OPO architecture has had a strong advantage for a number of years, as output wavelengths are easily tuned by small changes to the properties of the nonlinear optical crystal through changes in temperature or orientation. Raman lasers on the other hand rely on stimulated scattering between an optical pump and scattering centers in the Raman laser medium, related to high-frequency atomic vibrations. As the resulting frequency shift is related to the energy of these atomic vibrations, or phonons, each crystal can only shift the frequency by specific amounts equivalent to multiples of the phonon energy. This limits the wavelengths that can be accessed using Raman lasers to the particular source. A distinctive feature of stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) is that momentum conservation is automatically taken care of by the scattered phonons, so that efficiency is largely independent of temperature and angle. This automatic phase-matching advantage is responsible for the ability of incoherent light to be converted into an output beam of very high quality. In addition, the gain profiles mean that over many round trips in the laser cavity, the gain in a Raman laser approaches the Gaussian shape that is fundamentally ideal for generating diffraction-limited laser beams. For some time, the tuning advantage of OPOs has made them a more prevalent route to frequency shifting. However, both OPOs and the incumbent Raman-shifting crystals have struggled to handle high peak or average powers that might be seen in lasers used in materials processing applications, for example. High-purity engineered diamond Diamond has long been known to be an exceptional optical material, particularly at high powers. It is transparent at a wide range of wavelengths from the mid-UV (the band gap of diamond is 5.45 eV) to the microwave region of the spectrum, meaning it can be used in a wide range of lasers operating at diverse wavelengths. Diamond also has the highest room-temperature thermal conductivity of any bulk material: two orders of magnitude higher than many optical engineering materials. It also has high fracture strength, allowing optics that must withstand stresses to be thinner, and high Youngs modulus means that it retains its shape well, even under large loads. It also has a low coefficient of thermal expansion for stable operation in a variety of temperature environments. 1,2 Historically, early applications relied on high-quality natural diamond samples, precluding their use in industrial applications due to high cost. But that was before the introduction of high-purity single-crystal diamond manufactured via CVD techniques. With careful control of process parameters and feedstock quality, high-purity diamond with carefully controlled properties has been synthesized. Defect levels can be reduced and controlled to a few tens of parts per billion (ppb), and while many of the early optical products were polycrystalline in nature, single-crystal parts are now available in reasonable sizesup to 8 8 mm and 2 mm thickwith bigger sizes under development. Diamond for Raman lasers With the development of ever-higher-quality grades of CVD diamond, interest in using diamond in Raman lasers has grown. 3 Diamond Raman lasers make an excellent frequency-shifting solution, overcoming many of the limitations of current systems. First, diamond has a higher stimulated emission efficiency, or Raman gain coefficient, than any of its competing materials. Due to the stiff lattice and light carbon atoms, it has a high Debye temperature (the temperature of a crystals highest normal mode of vibration), giving a larger frequency shift or higher spectral resolution than its competitors. Of course, the excitation of lattice vibrations is effectively heating the material. Critically, for high-power laser systems there is a significant heat load that needs dissipating here, diamond excels beyond other materials due to its exceptional thermal conductivity. And when comparing CVD diamond to a range of standard Raman materials, diamonds figure of meritthe ratio of Raman gain coefficient to the pump laser attenuation coefficientis around two orders of magnitude higher than the competitor materials (see table). In addition to superior material properties, diamonds very high transparency means it can be used for a range of wavelengths that other materials cannot compete with (see Fig. 1). FIGURE 1. The absorption spectrum is shown for standard optical and low-absorption single-crystal diamond grades. Also shown are wavelengths available using a diamond Raman laser to shift the fundamental and two harmonics of a Nd:YAG laser. Successful diamond Raman lasers have now been reported, working at a range of different wavelengths, operating at high powers and high beam qualities, for both continuous-wave and pulsed systems, and with efficiencies gt 90. The three case studies that follow demonstrate the range of performance that can be achieved. Case 1: High power and high beam quality Raman conversion for high-power laser beams is intrinsically challenging. The transfer of energy to phonons in a Raman laser directly heats the crystal, and since high intensities are required to drive the third-order nonlinear gain, there can be very high local heating. In most materials, this would create severe challenges with thermal lensing. In diamond, the high Raman gain coefficient means that the threshold for lasing is low compared to competitor materials, allowing lower beam intensities the high thermal conductivity and moderate thermal expansion coefficient keep thermal lensing to a minimum. Exploiting these exceptional thermal properties, Richard Mildrens group at Macquarie University (Sydney, Australia), one of the leading groups working on diamond Raman lasers, has demonstrated stable diamond Raman lasers operating at greater than 100 Walready an order of magnitude higher than possible with alternative Raman laser materials. 4 In addition, Mildrens team has also reported significant improvements in brightness using this system. A combination of the automatic phase matching typical for all Raman lasers, and the greatly reduced thermal lensing of diamond Raman lasers means the systems have allowed them to produce diffraction-limited beams. Finally, the group has also reported beam cleanup of multimode or aberrated beams under some conditions. For example, in a system based on a Q - switched neodymium laser operating at 35 kHz and 50 W of average power, the beam divergence of approximately four times the diffraction limit was converted to the second Stokes wavelength at around 1.5 m, with a diffraction-limited beam quality (m 2 lt 1.1). Overall, this conversion provided a 70 increase in brightness despite the intrinsic loss of the Raman shifting process. This combination of high brightness and efficient conversion could lead to applications from improved materials machining throughputs to long-range, eye-safe laser systems for rangefinding. Case 2: Tunable solid-state lasers There are very few tunable solid-state lasers available, and those that exist can be large and complex systems. Tunable Raman lasers developed in the past are limited to low output powers due to the poor thermal conductivity of the Raman material. But diamond removes this barrier, leading to multiwatt output powers at wavelengths difficult to achieve with conventional lasers. The University of Strathclyde (Glasgow, Scotland), which has used diamond for a range of optical applications for a number of years, has recently combined the Raman lasers intrinsic frequency-shifting capability with both a tunable semiconductor disk laser (SDL) and frequency-doubling crystal to create a single solid-state laser system capable of producing a range of wavelengths. The groups of Dawson, Kemp, and Hastie have between them worked on surface functionalization of diamond intra-cavity cooling for various disk laser systems (semiconductor and solid-state) and Raman lasers. In doing so, they have achieved gt 4 W at a range of wavelengths in the IR and gt 1 W in the visible-notably in the orange portion of the spectrum. 5 The indium gallium arsenide (InGaAs)-based quantum well SDL operates between 960 and 1080 nm, and was shifted to between 1209 and 1256 nm using a diamond Raman laser. The beam quality remained good, with m 2 lt 1.4, and decreased further when higher power output was achieved. Inclusion within the Raman laser of a lithium triborate frequency-doubling crystal produced a range of wavelengths from 604 to 620 nm. This research has led to the development of a simple and stable solid-state laser concept capable of accessing a range of wavelengths for applications such as sensing or spectroscopy, not possible with current laser systems. Case 3: Monolithic diamond Raman lasers The University of Strathclyde is also developing a monolithic diamond Raman laser that converts green to yellow light. The high-power, high-brightness, high-efficiency yellow laser light expands the range of application possibilities and demonstrates the capability to retrofit diamond components into existing laser systems (see Fig. 2). 6 FIGURE 2. A monolithic diamond Raman laser at the University of Strathclyde converts green to yellow light. Future opportunities A range of different diamond laser solutions have been demonstrated in the last five years, including continuous wave, Q - switched, and ultrafast temporal domain lasers with output wavelengths spanning the deep-UV to the mid-IR region. The limits of diamond Raman lasers with regard to peak and average power have not yet been reached, and kilowatt-class lasers are now being investigated. With continued research into larger and higher-purity diamond components, interest in the possible uses for diamond Raman lasers will continue to grow. REFERENCES 1. R. S. Balmer et al. J. Phys. Condens. Matter . 21, 36, 364221 (2009). 2. J. M. Dodson et al. quotSingle crystal and poly crystalline CVD diamond for demanding optical applications, quot Window and Dome Technologies and Materials XII conference, paper 8016-20, Orlando, FL (Apr. 2011). 3. I. Friel et al. quotDevelopment of high quality single crystal diamond for novel laser applications, quot Proc. SPIE . 7838, 783819 (2010). 4. R. P. Mildren et al. Optics amp Photonics News . 4449, (Sept. 2014). 5. D. C. Parrotta et al. IEEE J. Select. Topics Quantum Electron. . 19, 4, 1400108 (2013). 6. S. Reilly et al. Opt. Lette. . 40, 6, 930933 (2015). Andrew Bennett is principal research scientist and Harpreet Dhillon is senior research scientist at Element Six, Kings Ride Park, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 8BP England e-mail: andrew. bennette6 e6 . Buyers Guide PRESS RELEASES